Mets rolling dice with Pelfrey-Perez-Maine trio
Last Updated: 3:49 PM, March 4, 2010
Posted: 2:41 AM, March 4, 2010
Comments: 13
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Joel ShermanPORT ST. LUCIE — I understand the optimism. It is March. It is 0-0 records all over the landscape, including Flushing. So the Mets are upbeat, full of faith.
They want to believe last season is no longer a disaster, but a motivator for players embarrassed by the recent past. If I hear the term “chip on their shoulder” one more time, I am going to assume that chip on the shoulder is just the latest bizarre injury to strike the HMO Mets.
Jason Bay, Daniel Murphy and the catching tandem of Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco are not Gold Glovers, but the Mets see them as distinct defensive upgrades over Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado and the catching tandem of Brian Schneider and Omir Santos.
Bay combined with the recuperation of Jose Reyes promises an offensive improvement even if Carlos Beltran ends up on the Mets’ too-familiar medical rehab program in which he will be due back in April, then May, then June . . .
The Mets have talent, so you don’t need the imagination of a “Lost” scriptwriter to envision scenarios for contention. But while the Mets try to stow last year in the forgettable history bin with signing Vince Coleman, trading Nolan Ryan and thinking Art Howe lights up a room, they cannot fully escape. Not when every scenario remains tied yet again to the effectiveness of Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine.
“They have to be good,” Jerry Manuel conceded. “We don’t have enough depth to overcome [a repeat of last year].”
As much as anything, the downfall of that trio undermined the 2009 Mets. So finding a reliable starter was on their offseason wish list. But they never even made offers on dependable innings-eater types such as Doug Davis and Jon Garland. They claimed it was not tight purse strings, but rather a baseball decision that they had better alternatives already with their Nos. 2-3-4 starters.
But this is not about talent with Pelfrey, Perez and Maine. They are talented. They also are untrustworthy. Yet the tenures of Omar Minaya and Manuel revolve around these three volatile starters. I guess it could be worse; Gov. Paterson could be their reference for their next job.
However, to hold on to these jobs, Minaya and Manuel probably have to make the playoffs, so they likely need no fewer than two of three from Pelfrey/Perez/Maine to have high-caliber seasons. Hey, you might make it across an alligator-infested swamp to get from one side to the other. That doesn’t mean it is a great idea. Having your employment in the hands of Pelfrey/Perez/Maine feels the same.
Think of it another way: Would you want your job invested in a player so unreliable that the mere act of getting into good shape and looking effective in bullpen sessions stirs euphoria, or what around Mets camp is called the Ollie Perez Experience?
It is quite a wobbly tightrope. The Mets are treating the Nos. 1 and 5 spots as sure things though the ace (Johan Santana) turns 31 next week and is coming off elbow surgery and the presumptive No. 5 (Jon Niese) is unproven and coming off hamstring surgery.
But even if we give the Mets the bread in the sandwich, the meat between the Nos. 1 and 5 starters remains dubious. The Mets keep saying to discard the 2009 car wreck and remember that Pelfrey/Perez/Maine each won in double-digits in 2008. But why should anyone believe 2008 reflects the actual abilities of this trio?
Perez has four seasons with an ERA of 5.40 or greater, the most of any active pitcher (minimum 10 starts in a season) currently slated to be in a rotation. The injury-prone Maine has topped 140 innings once. The pitcher in Mets’ history that Pelfrey is most similar to statistically is Jae Weong Seo.
Also, in 2008 the trio was way closer to league average than to All-Stars. But, hey, it is March, optimism time. So a more determined Perez has his mechanics more repeatable, a lighter Pelfrey is refining his changeup to provide diversity to his hard sinker, and Maine’s problematic shoulder is sound enough that he is enhancing his slider to try to limit so many foul balls off his heater.
Maybe it will all work. But would you want your job riding on it?
joel.sherman@nypost.com
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Comments (13)
Post Your CommentBills4
03/06/2010 8:23 AM
Gil Meche from the Royals is available. I would feel better about him in the 2 slot and Niese and Nieve at the bottom of the rotation than these 3 guys filing in 2 thru 4.
jmets111
03/05/2010 9:58 AM
Here's Joel's question:
But why should anyone believe 2008 reflects the actual abilities of this trio?
Here's my answer:
Becauase Maine and Perez are healthy, and Pelfrey is a year more mature.
Joel, what happens if your Yankees' Burnett, Pettite and Vasquez revert to their injury prone/down years? Would you want your job relying on it?
Stick to covering the Yankees. Or, quit being so friggin' lazy and try writing an article about fresh news, ideas, concepts.
Just remember Joel (along with Kernin) was the guy who thought Melky was better than Ellsbury. If that doesn't tell you were his baseball alegiance lies or how off his baseball acument is, NOTHING WILL.
Stick to covering the Yankees
gilhodges
03/04/2010 8:34 PM
Also, as far as Lackey goes, it was common knowledge that the guy has had a history of elbow problems in his career and that no team was willing to overpay for him nor did they want to pay the insurance on that elbow. If the Red Sox were willing to take that chance to sign him, so be it, but no one else was willing to risk that kind of free agent signing.
gilhodges
03/04/2010 8:17 PM
Hey onegameatatime,
I guess Jason Bay or K Rod or Carlos Beltran or Billy Wagner or Pedro weren't free agents, huh? Plus lets not forget the trades Omar made over that period of time such as for a healthy Carlos Delgado, Jeff Francoeur, or gee, some guy named Santana?
onegameatatime
03/04/2010 4:28 PM
Gil,
Are you Omar Minaya? The Mets have been using lame excuses for not signing free agents (see A-Rod and Vlad Guerrero) for years. Does John Lackey look like damaged goods to you?
gilhodges
03/04/2010 4:24 PM
So according to Joel, the Mets should have: A) given 12 million for a pitcher who didnt even throw ONE INNING last season and is coming off surgery (Ben Sheets). B) overpaid for another pitcher who wouln't pay the insurance on his own oft injured elbow but would let another team overpay him and pay the insurance on said elbow (John Lackey) C) add another 30-40 million for a starter to tie up the payroll leaving no flexibility for any future deals (Halladay) and D) overpay for a pitcher who had his best seasons with Dave Duncan, the guru of pitching coaches with the risk being that he'll never pitch better anywhere but in St Louis (Joel Pinero). It's a good thing writers, talk show hosts, etc aren't GM's becuase of they were, the Mets would be far worse off overpaying for mediocre talent that would set them back another 5 or 10 years.
onegameatatime
03/04/2010 4:02 PM
Joshua,
Exactly. Anyone that see starters like Perez,Pelfrey,Maine,Fogg and R.A. and does not see the need to get pitching should not be in a position of baseball management. Bay is a good player but pitching was more of a need and the Mets made no play for Lackey. Bizarre.
Rando,I don't always agree with Sherman but the starting pitching is very thin. This team is going to have to hit .300 to stay in games.
Sick
03/04/2010 2:56 PM
The Mess are rolling the dice ( with this trio ) ? It's more like the Mess are going to take another c-r-a-p going with these guy's again !