Bettor Believe It

Bettor Believe It

Bookies set odds on Woods' divorce settlement

December 17, 2009 , ι ASSOCIATED PRESS

If Tiger Woods and his Swedish wife get divorced, Elin Nordegren won’t be the only one collecting on the settlement. British bookmaker William Hill is taking bets on just how much Nordegren will get... Read on

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Bettor Believe It: End of an era?

October 09, 2009 , ι TIM SULLIVAN

If that all-important key word -- parity -- has indeed stormed out of the backdoor in the NFL (please see the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns) like so many are talking and writing about, well it sure has found a home on Saturdays, and Thursdays more specifically.
	 
Favorites are still hitting a solid clip in college football, make no mistake. Through last week, underdogs had a 52-48 lead in terms of percentage over favorites, which is quite good on both sides. College has never been an outfit where either side dominates, and this season is bearing that out. In other words, people who tell you to "always take the underdog," or "always take the favorite," don't get very far in the college game.
	 
That said, there are some major betting angles in college football this season that are simply not living up to their billing. Look no further than Thursday Night Football.
	 
Traditionally, with an ESPN crew in town, and all the pomp and circumstance that goes along with it, the home team -- and its fans --- gets an injection of enthusiasm. A boost they wouldn't normally have. The myth for so many years, is that the theory belonged only to home underdogs. Not the case. It's always been home teams, period. Favorite, underdog, light, heavy, no matter. Home teams win on Thursday nights.
	 
Not anymore.
	 
So far this season, with a doubleheader on Opening Night, the ESPN Thursday Night Game has been as close to a 50-50 prop as you can get. Home teams have gone 5-2, straight up, but that's not going to get you very far, is it? More importantly, against the spread, home teams have gone 3-4, with two teams -- Missouri last night, and N.C. State on Opening Night -- losing outright.
	 
So, take a closer look at Thursdays from now on. Don't just run to the home team. We didn't last week, with Colorado, and won. We did this week, with Missouri, and lost. So beware. And you'll have a doozy next week to test your intelligence, as No. 24 South Florida plays host to No. 10 Cincinnati. So, expect another home underdog.
	 
STRANGEST LINES OF THE WEEK
	 
The award has to go to Arizona, right? Washington has become the nation's cover darling, right? The Huskies have proud covers over Notre Dame, LSU and USC. Not bad. So, here comes an average Arizona team into Seattle tomorrow ... as a favorite?
	 
The Wildcats opened as a 2-point choice. And get this: Despite 62-percent of the action coming in on Jake Locker and the Huskies, Arizona is now a 3.5-point pick. Go figure. As we wrote in this week's "On Campus," we're running away from the Huskies on this one. Somebody knows something we don't. We're going with Arizona.
	 
Along those same lines, one of our "Off the Grid" picks fits into that category, as well, this week. Here comes Georgia Tech, fresh off a road win at an SEC stadium. The Yellow Jackets are ranked, their offense is rolling, and they may just have enough to get to the ACC title game. So, this game at Tallahassee, vs. bumbling Florida State is a layup, right?
	 
Again, somebody knows something. The Seminoles are 3-point favorites. We won't ask why. We'll just ride the home team, and if you can stomach taking a Florida State squad that is in complete disarray, you might want to jump on board.
	 
Good luck this weekend.

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Beware of the college football hangover

September 30, 2009 , ι TIM SULLIVAN

The standard hangover theory – play against a team that registered an upset the week before, especially when that team is on the road the following week – worked like a charm last week.
	 
Miami was the nation’s darling … for seven days. But the Hurricanes, dropped easily by Virginia Tech, 31-7, couldn’t muster the same energy they used to dispatch Georgia Tech the week before. Now, to be fair, Miami was favored to beat Georgia Tech, but the 33-17 victory was viewed by many as an upset, because the Yellow Jackets were ranked higher at the time. Either way, the hangover cashes in.
	 
Let’s stay in the Sunshine State. Florida State played into the Miami Love Affair as well. Because they lost to supposedly resurgent Miami, and hammered BYU two weeks later, all of a sudden, the Seminoles were “back.” Until South Florida dropped them, 17-7, in Tallahassee.
	 
Now, the hangover school of thought is just like any other: It only looks good, when it cashes in. And it may not this week, of course, because of the teams you have to lean on. But there are options out there, one way or the other:
	 
SOUTH FLORIDA:Perhaps we should call this Six Degrees of Miami? Either way, the Bulls now have the spotlight, as people are calling them the next great team in Florida, and how great it is that they knocked off an ACC giant. They did so without their top quarterback – Matt Grothe – and so the team looks even more sound now. Take from that what you will, but Syracuse is the next stop for the Bulls, and it looks – spreadwise – that they’ll have to win by a touchdown if you dodge the hangover and bet the visiting Bulls.
	 
VIRGINIA TECH:Another branch from the Miami tree, the Hokies just stomped the Hurricanes, and despite the rankings, that was an upset, because Miami was favored. Now the Hokies have to get up for Duke, in Durham. Not a bad trip, certainly, but you’ll have to cover 17 it looks like, to cash in. Food for thought.
	 
OREGON:Nobody looked more impressive than the Ducks, who bottled up Cal, 42-3. Now, they have to ratchet up enough energy to dispose of Washington State. Like Virginia Tech – because you’d have to play a bad Duke team to cash in — tread lightly with this one, because the Cougars are terrible. That said, you’ll be getting a 32-point headstart. You may need every ounce of it, though, because Oregon can be a tough, tough place to play. Ask the Golden Bears.
	 
Either way, be careful. The hangovers out there – because of Duke and Washington State – might be worth watching this week, instead of playing.
	 
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
	 
Pitt let one slip away last week at N.C. State, 38-31, but has an opportunity to recover. The Panthers (3-1) meet Louisville (1-3) in Kentucky on Friday night, and the preseason choice to win the conference is a 6.5-point favorite.
	 
The Panthers showed they clearly have holes on the defensive end, but Louisville is not N.C. State. The Cardinals have yet to defeat a Division I team, and lost to Pitt, 41-7, last season.
	 
ON CAMPUS
	 
In tomorrow’s “On Campus” column in The Post, we highlight the marquee Pac-10 game of the week, Southern Cal at Cal, two teams eager to regain the national spotlight.
	 
OFF THE GRID
	 
In tomorrow’s “Off the Grid” in The Post, we break down these two under-the-radar contests:
	 
1. Oregon State at Arizona State
	 
2. Tulsa at Rice
	 
“Off the Grid” went 3-0 last week, and is 8-4 on the season.
	 
STEELE TOWN
	 
As always, we take a good look at philsteele.com before our week’s action kicks off. Phil breaks down his Top 25 selections this week, right here:
	 
http://www.philsteele.com/top25/2009/wk5_top25.html
	 
tsullivan@nypost.com

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About the Author

TIM SULLIVAN Tim Sullivan has been the Deputy Sports Editor of the New York Post since 2004. A 1994 graduate of Duquesne University, he writes three weekly college sports-related columns: "The City Game," "On Campus," and "March Madne$$". Tim held similar positions at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Florida Times-Union, and the St. Petersburg Times. He has been handicapping college football and basketball games for The Post since 2005. He won the Saturday's Heroes championship in 2005 and 2006, and enters the 2009 seasons with a 543-473-26 overall record. In October 2007, Tim became a member of Heisman Trophy selection committee.